The Supreme Court heard oral argument in United States v. Rahimi. Mr. Rahimi is expected to lose 7-2, 8-1, or even 9-0, probably over some stern concurrences. It’s likely that they’ll reverse the Fifth Circuit, although that doesn’t mean that the Fifth Circuit failed to apply Bruen. The Supreme Court already doubts the precedent, so blame the lower courts is unnecessary. The most probable path ahead implies that the Court will give useful guidance for the lower courts on how to apply Bruen. The guidance of the Solicitor General is to “identify principles” from history.
Justice Barrett has shed light on a looming case on the docket, particularly concerning domestic violence. She has inquired about the potential outcome of a case where the defendant is not dangerous. Later in the court session, she asked if dangerousness is not being applied to the crimes. The reference is to Garland v. Range.
Justice Barrett also asked how this issue could be saved, and the response was that further arguments could be presented in a future case. Still, Range will be distributed at the November 17 conference, and the case may pull out a victory by the same margin from Bruen. Even if Rahimi loses, Range could potentially win it. The Court could provide clear guidance to the Fifth Circuit based on the state of the law.